October 5, 2012

A Look Back - Pre Season Predictions

A long time has passed since I posted my season predictions in April (or for that matter since the last time we've posted anything, but I'll save that discussion for another day).  I thought it would be interesting to take a look back to see how far off I was.  As you'll see (pre-season predictions in Blue), some were dead wrong, but others pretty spot on.  Lets start with the divisions;
 Divisions
AL East
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
I didn't do so good with the AL East.  I got the champion correct, but missed badly on the rest.
 AL Central
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
A little bit of homerism here as other than the Indians I did pretty good with the AL Central
AL West
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Oakland A’s
The A's winning the division makes this look pretty bad, but I'm sure many others are in the same boat.  I'm still stunned they beat out the Rangers and Angels - but good for them.

NL East
 
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Many thought I was nuts when I picked the Nationals over the Phillies to start the year.  I have the Braves a little too low, but overall I'd say this division was a success.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
Houston Astros
Again, I had one team (the Cubs) too high otherwise I'd venture to say this is closer than most 'experts'.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
Dang, I should do this for a living... :)

 Playoffs

American League
1 Game Wild Card – Rangers over Red Sox
Division – Tigers over Rangers, Angels over Yankees
ALCS – Tigers over Angels
Obviously one of my ALCS teams is already out of the playoffs and much has been written about the Red Sox epic collapse (again) so I didn't do so great here.  I do have three out of five teams, but most people probably have those same three.  Anyone have the Orioles or A's in the playoffs?

National League
1 Game Wild Card – Phillies over Marlins
Division – Phillies over Diamondbacks, Reds over Nationals
NLCS – Reds over Phillies
I really liked the Reds and Nationals to start the year.  While many people probably had the Tigers, Rangers and Yankees in the AL, far fewer had the Reds or Nationals so I'd say those were good picks.  The Diamondbacks and Phillies weren't too bad either (lets just forget about the Marlins pick ok). 

World Series
Cincinnati Reds over Detroit Tigers
Still a very real possibility.  I'm not 100% sure this is what I'd pick to start the playoffs, but I'm lucky to still have my two WS teams in it so I'll stick with the pick.   

Post – Season Awards

American League
MVP – Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Sleeper – Ian Kinsler
I still think Longoria is going to break through as a true super star one of these years, but it wasn't in 2012 as injuries held him back.  One huge ommision is obviously Mike Trout, but nobody had him as an MVP candidate.  Also, my 2nd choice is the favorite (and in my mind clearly the most deserving) so I didn't do too bad here. 
Cy Young – Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Sleeper – Yu Darvish
I'm missing David Price, who should be in the top 2 when voting comes out, but I did pick three of the top four and my sleeper did well too. 
ROY – Yoenis Cespedes, Jesus Montero, Yu Darvish
This is always a tough thing to predict because you don't know who will be up when.  That said, I think I picked the winner in Cespedes...:) j/k I missed Trout alltogether here.  Even though I had some decent picks, I'd say not having the best rookie ever is a miss.  
Manager – Bobby Valentine, Jim Leyland, Ron Washington
Nobody wants to read about Manager of the Year picks right (this has to be my worst pick of all...)
Comeback – Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford
Followed by one of my best.  Both Choo and Dunn had pretty good years following major disappointments in 2011. 

National League 
MVP – Justin Upton, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Sleeper – Andrew McCutchen
My sleeper did better than any of my top three selections.  I'm not sure if thats a good or bad thing.
Cy Young – Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Sleeper – Mat Latos
None of these guys were great, but they were all pretty good.  Plus I missed out on Dickey, Cain and Gio so not so good here.
ROY – Paul Goldschmidt, Yonder Alonso, Zach Cosart
Not a great trio, but Goldschmidt should be in the discussion and I mentioned ROY is tough to pick. 
Manager – Davey Johnson, Kirk Gibson, Charlie Manuel
Dead on here with Johnson and Gibson and Manuel weren't bad picks either (at least neither is in danger of being fired).
Comeback – Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Jason Heyward
Hanley wasn't as bad as last year, Wright got himself back into the list of elite players in the National League and Heyward was arguable the top hitter for the playoff bound Braves.  All three were good picks and Heyward could win the award.
Not to pat myself on the back too much, but all in all I think I did pretty good job with my predictions this year.  Right now some of these things may look like slam dunks, but that most certianly wasn't the case early in the year.  Some of my picks were 'cookie cutter' and on some I went out on a limb.  How did you do on your picks this year?  Who is your pick for the games tonight?  What about the rest of the post-season? 

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