February 20, 2012

Sleepers and Busts

As you start reading this you most likely want to have our rockin’, bitchin’, “out of this world” Rankings & Auction Values sheet up, because all of the following will be based on that. Here ya go! Oh, and here’s a picture of some bust because when I read the tittie…I mean title that’s what I thought of.

sleep·er; noun
1. a person or thing that sleeps.  I do enjoy that, but doesn’t apply
2. a heavy horizontal timber for distributing loads.  huh?
3. Building Trades . – now we’re getting somewhere!
a. any long wooden, metal, or stone piece lying horizontally as a sill or footing.  that’s what she said
b. any of a number of wooden pieces, laid upon the ground or upon masonry or concrete, to which floorboards are nailed. – I’ll nail you!
4. a sleeping car. – does it snore?
5. Informal . something or someone that becomes unexpectedly successful or important after a period of being unnoticed, ignored, or considered unpromising or a failure: The play was the sleeper of the season. – BOOM! Here we go!

Read #5 over again…DO IT!!! Know that, use that, BE that. Because the overuse of the term sleeper is killing me! Every Fantasy Baseball (FBB) website has a list, we are not immune to that, obviously, but I want to take it a step above. I want to really take “becomes unexpectedly successful or important after a period of being unnoticed, ignored, or considered unpromising or a failure” to heart.  So the list I’m providing you with will not have names like Lawrie, Hosmer, or Strasburg on it, no, it’ll contain guys that when drafted you’ll hear this from members of your league ________ *that’s silence, I don’t know how to type silence* Because just like you, I play FBB, I love fantasy baseball (my wife claims more so then her, but pppff…what does she know?! She probably doesn’t even know who the 4th starter is for the Washington Nationals…Jackson or Zimmerman), and I try to win and FBB. Nothing gives me greater joy then beating Furtah, which I did not do in 2011 and he’ll be the first to point that out, in our FBB league.

Sleepers

Drew Stubbs – This is a guy I will be trying for in every one of my leagues. He’s fallen on everyone’s “meh, no big deal” list and I love it! He’s a lock for 30 stolen bases, and I think he can pull an Ellsbury and take a leap in power numbers. He’s shown he can plunk 20+HRs (2010), so why not take that extra leap for 30? In 2011, his flyball % was the lowest of his career, and expectantly, as was his flyball/homerun ratio. As such, I see a huge year, not only for the Reds, but for Stubbs. I’m predicting a 30/30 season in 2012.

Brandon Beachy – Beachy is the main reason why I’m not grabbing a pitcher before round 10. He has Cy Young caliber stuff, and he can anchor a staff.

Not deep enough for ya, eh? Well here’s some more!

Martin Prado – Fantasy managers hate this guy because he doesn’t produce in the glory stats like SBs or HRs. One stat that is greatly overlooked is average. Of all the players that hit 25 or more HRs in 2011, half had averages that wouldn’t hurt your team. Put a guy like Prado on your team, and you won’t have to worry. 2011 was a disastrous year for Prado, his BABIP was the lowest of his career, he was plagued with an injury, and his pet parakeet died (I made that last one up so I could have 3 things).  Anyway, I see a solid year for him, 80+Runs, 15 HRs, 60+RBIs, and a 0.312 BA.  Nothing epic, but a solid contributor.

Colby Rasmus – Remember him? He was supposed to be a superstar by now, but after years of being an asshole, Karma finally caught up to him. I don’t know what it is, but batting in that Blue Jays lineup gives me hope for a Launchpad season. I think this is the year to take him in keeper leagues, because 2013, he’ll be an Ian Kinsler type.  I see a 90R 25HR 11SB season for Rasmus in 2012

Ryan Vogelsong – I really love this Vogel”Song” ßget it? Seriously though, I see a repeat.

Ryan Dempster – I have no idea why you people, yeah you sitting there in your comfy work/home chair, eating those delicious snacks I love so much, hate Dempster. He’s hovered around 8K/9IP for the last 8 years, doesn’t kill your ERA (last year was an exception), and will give ya 200+ IP. He’s not a sexy pick by any means, but when you’re filling out your #4 or #5 starter, a guy that can bring 180+ K’s is very nice, and rare.

Mat Gamel/ Gordon Beckham/ Homer Bailey – I group these guys together because they just remind me so much of each other. They tease us with their talents like that hot chick in the bar. The way she laughs, smiles, and doesn’t know I’m watching her…but I’m always watchi…..anyway….Bailey is still only 26. Still! I feel like this guy should be 106! He has some good splits, and I think he takes the leap this year. Gamel is make or break this year. Yes he’ll have a lot of pressure on him, but after some growing pains, and Braun comes back (if Milwaukee is patient enough with him), I think he blows up.  He’s numbers suggest he’s patient enough with a solid eye for the strike zone.  Beckham’s numbers having been trending downward every year. An increase in K’s, a decrease in walks, and overall he’s just been crap-tastic. 2009 was Beckham’s best season. He wasn’t expected to contribute right away, and was more or less an afterthought after Fields, Getz, and the hot dog vendor didn’t work out. Since the White Sox are conceding the AL Central this year, the pressure will be off, and Beckham will perform.

Zack Cozart – This kid has some serious talent, a starting gig, and my heart. I like him a lot in deep/keeper leagues.

Brad Peacock – Another huge talent, but the only thing is, not a definite starting spot. Oakland has a lot of pitchers vyying for the #4 & #5 in the rotation, but Peacock has the inside track.

 
Busts

Ian Kinsler – He’s finally have back to back seasons with 550+ at-bats. Woohoo! Prior to that he had 1 season of 550 Abs.  Texas has a strange way of hurting baseball players. Maybe it’s the rodeos, the fat women (in 2011, Texas had 2 in the top 20), or Nolan Ryan’s stare, but whatever it is, the Rangers have a hard time keeping all their players on the field.  Kinsler is a talent, but for where he’s going in drafts, he’s just too high a risk to take.  The risk is especially high since there are guys like Uggla, Phillips, Weeks (similar assessment as Kinslers, but much cheaper), and  Zobrist.

Shane Victorino – I’ve never been a huge fan of Victorino, but he does a little of everything. Last year his batting average and stolen bases dropped off, even though his BB% & K% stayed about the same.  I think the days are gone where you can pencil 100R 25+SBs with a 0.290 Avg. I don’t see upside or value here, especially where I see Victorino being drafted. I think Victorino barely reaches 80R 14HR 20SBs 0.269BA

Chase Utley – I don’t know if you can classify Utley as a bust, but I’m saying stay away from him. The last decent year Utley had was in 2009. Since then he’s been plagued with injuries, and zero production. He’s in his 30’s, and I just don’t want him on my team, especially with how deep 2B is.

6 comments:

  1. Uh, did John Lannan get traded to Oakland?? Because that's where Peacock will be pitching.

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  2. Totally disagree with Kinsler being a bust. Very few 30/30 candidates and he is one.

    I don't put Gamel with those other guys but I do think he is a sleeper. He hasn't been given a real opportunity yet.

    I heard Vogelsong got hurt, stop trying to use the site to promote your guys for trades haha

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  3. Yeah, Kinsler is a talent, but I think this year will be a down year. Gamel hasn't been given the starting gig, but he certainly hasn't earned it. Every year the Brewers gave him every opportunity to showcase his talents but he flopped. However, this year will be different, which makes him a sleeper. And Voggy did get hurt, but it's just a back tweak, so he'll be fine. And I'll promote Voggy all day, I'm getting 0.000001% commission on his salary. haha

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  4. Could you provide somemore insight into why you think Vogelsong will repeat last years numbers? Not a great K rate, strand rate and babip are a bit lucky. xFip and FIP about a full run over his ERA. Career year at age 34.

    I own him in a dynasty league and would love something close to 2011 numbers but Ive been shopping him all winter with no luck. Enjoyed the pist. Keep up the good work!

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  5. Vogelsong will not repeat last year, I'll start with that, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a bad pitcher. I think his LOB% was good, and I think his K-rate was low. Add an increased k-rate to more innings and your looking at 150+ Ks with some low double digit wins, and i see a below 4.00 ERA. He's not an anchor for a staff, but he can certainly hold his own, especially with so many people writing him off.

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