November 25, 2009

You Get What you Pay For

These are some big name guys. Guys I see some Fantasy GMs building there teams around. Guys that have had one, maybe 2 really really good seasons, however, judging from last year, and their over-hyped should be careers, I'm labeling these guys: "You Get What You Pay For"


Name HR R RBI SB AVG.

Vernon Wells 15 84 66 17 0.260

Billy Butler 21 78 93 1 0.301


Jeff Francouer 15 72 76 6 0.280
Hunter Pence 25 76 72 14 0.282
BJ Upton 11 79 55 42 0.241
Alexei Ramirez 15 71 68 15 0.277
Stephen Drew 12 71 65 5 0.261

Now some will argue these guys are still young, they have room to grow, and yes, I agree with that; Drew, Upton, and maybe Ramirez, have some high upside, but what these guys will be going for in drafts is not worth the risk. If I'm paying big bucks, I want "known" production. These guys are high risk, subtle rewards. I think their 2009 stats are right in line with what to expect, and that makes them no more then quality fillers for teams.

November 24, 2009

M Cabrera Trade Rumors

I decided to post this after reading some of the comments on MLBTradeRumors.

Some of the comments made were mind-boggling...

Cabrera may not age well. While I agree that in ~6-8 years that may be a concern, he is only 27, not 37 folks.

This would be a salary dump. Although the Tigers are looking to get rid of some payroll for 2010, this is not a salary dump. That phrase should be left to guys like Bradley, Lowe, Burrell, etc. Yes, Cabrera is one of the top contracts in baseball, but he also is one of the top (3-6 IMO) players in baseball too. Like some have said teams were willing to give Tex that much or more and Cabrera is clearly better than Tex (in the Yanks ballpark Cabrera would have 55 HR/year).

Cabrera is a liability in the field. This couldn't be further from the truth. Obviously he is not an Elite fielder and can't play 3B anymore, but he has improved is defense the past couple years at 1B and although he probably won't win any gold gloves, he's already an above average 1B in the AL.

Teams could get the same hitter in FA and not give up prospects. Are you kidding me? Holliday is the only player in the same 'group' as Cabrera and you saw what he did in a pitchers park. If any teams wants a true game changer they aren't going to get that from the FAs available this year. While it would (and should) cost a lot. Cabrera can single handedly upgrade an offense and could turn many teams into contenders. You can look at what he didn't do down the stretch, but where would the Tigers be without Cabrera this past year, he put up those numbers batting between Clete Thomas and an old, injured Magglio Ordonez!

Here's my take at what Teams might have to give up to get Cabrera. If they don't I'm sure the Tigers won't mind holding onto him (after 2010 his salary will fit in fine, even with a lower payroll).

Baltimore - Riemold, Guthrie & Snyder
NYM- F Mart, Niese, Davis, Flores
Bos - Buchholz, Anderson, Bowden (or Kelly)
Mariners - Aumont, Halman, Triunfel
Braves - Freeman, Jurjens, and SS/1B/3B guy
Giants - Bumgarden (or Posey), Villalona (or Sanchez if Posey), Burres
Tor - Snider, Cecil, Perez (probably not in it since they're trying to deal Halladay, but might like the extra years of team control)

Other teams; Angels, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Rangers?

I'm not 100% caught up on all these guys, so I might be under/over valuing a little in each case. Also if the trading team was willing to take a bad contract, the price could go down a bit...

November 19, 2009

2010 Catcher Tiers

Here are my preliminary Catcher tiers for 2010 Fantasy Baseball;

J Mauer
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V Martinez
B McCann
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M Wieters
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M Montero
K Suzuki
R Martin
B Molina
G Soto
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B Posey
M Napoli
J Posada
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R Doumit
----------------
C Santana
A Pierzynski
C Iannetta
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T Flores
J Saltallamachia
K Shoppach
M Olivo

Remember, this is a VERY early look, many things can change with FA, trades, injuries, etc. A couple notes;

-It is pretty clear that you either want to get one of the top 3-5 Catchers or wait until very late in the draft. Really the guys from 5-14 are tough to call at this point.

-If you typically like to slot in your catcher early and not worry about the position the rest of the year, move Martin, Posada and AJ up and maybe add Y Molina to the list. These guys don't have much upside, but their jobs are pretty secure and you know what your getting with each.

-Being that there are so many questions and so few C that actually have 'top' seasons each year, you may choose to draft a catcher with some upside. In that case move Soto, Posey, Doumit, Santana and Salty up on your list. If your guy is a bust or fails to break out, there are still options out there that should perform just as well as other 'safe' catchers that are drafted.

I'll be sure to update this list as the 2010 season draws closer...what are your thoughts?

-Furtah